Alumina operating capacity rebounds, spot prices expected to pull back under pressure [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment on June 16

Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded ag2509 alumina futures contract opened at 2,850 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,864 yuan/mt, a low of 2,838 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,852 yuan/mt, down 32 yuan/mt or 1.11% from the previous close, with open interest at 304,000 lots.

Ore: As of June 13, the SMM Import Bauxite Index stood at $74.15/mt, down $0.2/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea Bauxite CIF average price was $74.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian Low-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was $70/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian High-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was $65/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Industry News:

1. Bauxite Port Inventory: According to SMM statistics on June 13, the total bauxite inventory at nine domestic ports was 22.65 million mt, an increase of 1.46 million mt from the previous week.
2. Overseas Alumina Transactions: On June 13, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas at a transaction price of $366/mt FOB Eastern Australia, with an August shipment date.
3. A major alumina refinery in Shandong province lowered its liquid caustic soda purchase price. According to SMM, starting from June 14, a major alumina refinery in Shandong province adjusted the purchase price of 32% ionic membrane liquid caustic soda, reducing it by 10 yuan/mt from the base price of 830 yuan/mt. The ex-factory price under the two-invoice system was implemented at 820 yuan/mt (approximately 2,563 yuan/mt converted to 100% concentration).
4. Recently, the North Kalimantan aluminum smelter project in Indonesia, undertaken by the Sixth Metallurgical Construction Group, achieved a significant milestone—the first batch of 15 pots were successfully delivered to the project site and all were hoisted into place in one go, marking the project's entry into the core equipment installation phase.

Basis Report: According to SMM data, on June 13, the SMM Alumina Index had a premium of 358.93 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.

Warrant Report: On June 13, the total registered alumina warrant volume decreased by 2,717 mt from the previous trading day to 80,100 mt. The total registered alumina warrant volume in the Shandong region remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 601 mt. The total registered alumina warrant volume in the Henan region remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 300 mt. The total registered alumina warrant volume in the Guangxi region remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 3,001 mt. The total registered alumina warrant volume in the Gansu region remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 0 mt. The total registered alumina warrant volume in the Xinjiang region decreased by 2,717 mt from the previous trading day to 76,200 mt.

Overseas Market: As of June 13, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $370/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $22.00/mt. The USD/CNY selling rate was around 7.20. This price translates to an external selling price of approximately 3,269 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, which is 18 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price, keeping the alumina import window open.

Summary: The operating capacity of alumina rose by 1.74 million mt/year MoM to 89.01 million mt/year, with relatively loose spot supply compared to the previous period. The total weekly inventory of alumina at aluminum smelters increased by 16,000 mt to 2.646 million mt. In the short term, the alumina fundamentals are expected to maintain a relatively loose pattern, and alumina spot prices are expected to pull back. It is necessary to continuously monitor changes in the capacity of domestic alumina enterprises and the supply of imported alumina.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and should not rely on this information to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]